Reviewing the 3rd Quarter While Looking Ahead to Year-End
The third quarter of 2023 is now history. The September effect overwhelmed mildly positive returns in July and August to submerge all six benchmark indexes we monitor quarterly into the red. Although the order of best to worst varies among the six indexes, one commonality is having September as the worst historical month, both in […]
Combining Cyber-analysis and ValuEngine Model Forecasts for e-Commerce Companies
Analysis of the e-Commerce sector including SQ, LYFT, OSTK, VRSN, DOCU, IBUY. The purchase of the remains of the bankrupt Bed Bath and Beyond franchise by Overstock.com epitomizes the continued demise of brick-and-mortar stores succumbing to the efficiencies of e-Commerce. It’s a continuing rather than a new story but the trend seems inexorable. This thought […]
Screening for Timely and Liquid Stocks with Yield and EPS Growth
ValuEngine’s ratings from 1 (Strong Sell) to 5 (Strong Buy) are based upon our predictive model’s assessment of which stocks will appreciate most in price during the next 12 months on a percentage basis. As such, it will sometimes favor small stocks with a lower base for its highest ratings. Also, since it is price-appreciation […]
Case Study of a Ten-Year Actively Managed ETF
Cambria Advisors recently sent out a mailing that was somewhat self-congratulatory noting the 10-year anniversary of the launch of its first ETF. As we will explore shortly, I contend that the congratulations are well-deserved from a number of perspectives. The email missive piqued my interest for a specific reason. The main comparisons made in the […]
Semiconductor Stocks and ETFs – Is the Trend Still Your Friend?
Artificial Intelligence related stocks led the way robustly in the first half of 2023 with Nvidia (NVDA) leading the way. The general consensus among major strategists cautions that the steep price increases of such stocks is characteristic of a market bubble. Furthermore, for those who must be invested in equity, they suggest using growth stocks […]
2023 Midyear Review of Index ETFs and Smart Beta Strategies
Approaching 2023, the experts were in near unanimity that the fourth quarter of 2022 was little more than a dead cat bounce and that once the inevitable recession hit, the bear market would quickly take the S&P 500 Index to new lows. Instead, the first six months have seen the Nasdaq-100 ETF, Invesco QQQ rise […]
How Have Expert Stock Selection ETFs Performed in this Decade Thus Far?
Throughout my career, I’ve heard professional investors assert that index funds are fine for bull markets but in volatile-to-down markets, active management will outperform. SPIVA (S&P vs. Global) published research available from S&P Global has demonstrated that this was not true for actively managed mutual funds for 2022, and less true for the 2020-2022 period. […]
The Many Dimensions of Technology ETFs and the Stocks They Hold
The US Stock Market, led by technology, has outperformed most expectations this year. Going into Memorial Day weekend, SPY, the most popular S&P 500 ETF, has risen more than 10%. That’s a very impressive number in the face of many of the best-known strategists predicting a down year for the major index in 2023. As […]
GARP with Yield and Excluding Falling Knives
GARP is an acronym used in the investment industry to connote “growth at reasonable prices.” Last week, we discussed the market size and style trends year-to-date and what our models expect to see for the year ahead. The bottom line is that both our predictive and valuation models thought the mega-cap-weighted ETFs, such as QQQ, […]
Large-Cap Growth Rampage Could Be Creating Small-Cap Value Opportunities
In January, we published “Rotating Regimes – What to Plan For in 2023.” At that time, we recounted that the 2022 US Stock Market was a conflagration that wiped out almost everything in its path with the exception of a few industries and ETFs. At that time, we reported that two Benchmark ETFs we track, […]